Question

When will some country do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?

25 comments25

Total Forecasters38

Community Prediction2050-10-21

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2099-12-24

...

2040-03-19 10:54

2050-10-21 22:29

2068-11-05 00:37

12.0%

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Reproductive medicine

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

55%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Reproductive medicine

Fertility rate for England and Wales plummets to lowest level since 1930s

Independent•Oct 28, 2024

UK fertility timebomb: Crisis as birth rates drop to all time low with some areas becoming 'baby deserts' as so few are having children

Daily Mail•Oct 28, 2024

Poll: One in Three Say Migration Should Be Top Priority for the President’s First 100 Days in 2025

Breitbart•Oct 29, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

55%